What to Know
- Bitcoin priceretreated toward$75,000into the Sunday weekly close after hitting a ten-week high of$78,400on Friday
- Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz onApril 18reversing a brief ceasefire and putting oil futures back in focus
- $260 millionin crypto liquidations were recorded in the prior24 hourswith long positions taking the hardest hit
- Bitcoin is rejecting from its21-week EMA near $78,900a level traders say must hold for bullish momentum to resume
Bitcoin price was back under pressure Sunday, struggling to hold$75,000as fresh geopolitical chaos swept back into the picture. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for the second time in weeks, flipped sentiment on its head, pulling BTC back from what had briefly looked like the start of a real recovery.
What Killed the Bitcoin Price Rally? The Hormuz Factor
Friday’s move to$78,400a ten-week high, felt like a setup for something. Bitcoin had been grinding higher, sentiment was turning, and traders were starting to talk about squeezing shorts. Then came the weekend.
TheStrait of Hormuz closureonApril 18upended everything. Iran shut down the oil route again, citing the US blockade of its ports, and the brief ceasefire that had briefly sent WTI crude below$80 per barrelits lowest sinceMarch 10was suddenly off the table. Oil risk came roaring back. So did macro fear.
These are exactly the conditions that punish crypto. When geopolitical risk spikes around oil, traders don’t flee to Bitcoin, at least not yet. They flee to cash, treasuries, and anything that isn’t correlated to a war in the Middle East.
- BTC hit a ten-week high of$78,400on Friday
- Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure reversed ceasefire optimism
- WTI crude had briefly dipped below$80/barrelbefore the closure
- BTC/USD pulled back sharply into the Sunday weekly close
Traders Watched the Mood Shift in Real Time
The weekend gave analysts plenty to chew on. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter had already flagged the setup heading into Sunday.
Market participants on X weren’t just watching price, they were watching each other watching price. Material Indicators put it bluntly: sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish on Friday, but that can flip on a single post. The vulnerability in that kind of market is obvious. You’re not pricing in fundamentals. You’re pricing in vibes.
Meanwhile, trader Daan Crypto Trades was watching aCME Group Bitcoin futures gapthat opened up as a result of the weekend pullback. Those gaps have a habit of acting as short-term price magnets when the new trading week kicks off, meaning the first move on Monday could be a fill-and-bounce scenario, if macro cooperates. “It’s going to be interesting to see the futures open today and how $OIL will react to the recent headlines regarding the strait,” he said.
Thecrypto liquidationsdata from CoinGlass told the other part of the story:$260 millionwiped from long positions in24 hoursas the retracement picked up pace. That’s not catastrophic, but it’s a clean reminder that use cuts both ways.
Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish at the moment, but that could change with one Tweet in the coming days. Know your invalidations.
What Does the $78,900 EMA Tell Us?
The weekly chart is the one that matters most right now, and it’s not particularly encouraging. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged the21-week exponential moving averagesitting at roughly$78,900as the wall Bitcoin couldn’t get through into the Sunday close.
That’s a meaningful level. The 21-week EMA has acted as both support and resistance at multiple inflection points over the past two years. Rejection from it, on a weekly close, is not a minor technical signal. It’s the kind of thing that tells you a trend hasn’t actually changed yet, regardless of how many ten-week highs you’ve printed.
TheBitcoin priceaction remains boxed in by this moving average on the upside while the macro backdrop refuses to clear. Until one of those two things changes, this market is stuck grinding.
Bitcoin is rejecting from the 21-week EMA (green).
US-Iran War Risk: How Long Can Crypto Ignore It?
Here’s the uncomfortable question nobody wants to sit with: what happens if this isn’t a brief flare-up? The mixed signals from US and Iranian sources this weekend, ceasefire one moment, Hormuz closed the next, point to a conflict that isn’t close to resolution.
The Kobeissi Letter called the weekend “eventful” before it even played out. That’s a polite way of saying the macro risk here is substantial and not going away.
Crypto has sometimes acted as a hedge against traditional market stress. But oil shock risk tied to a shooting war is a different animal. If WTI surges back above$90and inflation fears reignite, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut timeline gets blown up, and that is the one macro input that crypto bulls are betting everything on right now.
Call the$75,000defense admirable. But defending a number isn’t the same as building a floor. BTC needs clear air above$79,000before any serious bull case holds water.
We expect an eventful Sunday ahead.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin price drop to $75,000 this weekend?
Bitcoin price pulled back to $75,000 after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, reversing a brief ceasefire with the US. The geopolitical shock sent risk assets lower, unwound bullish crypto sentiment, and triggered roughly $260 million in liquidations as used long positions were forced out.
What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it affect crypto?
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil shipping lane, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes. When it closes, oil prices spike, inflation fears rise, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, a key driver of crypto bull markets, get pushed back, hitting risk assets like Bitcoin.
What is Bitcoin's 21-week EMA and why does it matter?
The 21-week exponential moving average is a widely watched technical indicator that smooths out Bitcoin’s price trend over roughly five months. At approximately $78,900, it acted as a ceiling that BTC could not close above on the weekly chart, signaling that the broader bullish trend has not yet been reclaimed.
How much was liquidated in crypto during the Bitcoin pullback?
CoinGlass data showed total crypto liquidations of $260 million over the 24-hour period covering the weekend pullback. Long positions bore the brunt of the damage as Bitcoin retreated from its ten-week high of $78,400 back toward the $75,000 level into the Sunday weekly close.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Every investment and trading decision involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.
$260M in liqs is honestly tame given the catalyst. last time Hormuz tensions spiked in Jan 2020 BTC barely flinched, so the 75k flush feels more like leverage unwind than real geopolitical pricing.
shuts Hormuz? the strait has been ‘closed’ in headlines three times this year already and ships keep moving. show me the tanker tracking data before i believe BTC dumped 15% on actual supply shock.
finally got my bid filled at 75.2k after waiting since the ETF peak. this is the kind of forced selling that sets up the next leg, not ends it.
brutal sunday candle.
does anyone know if the $260M liquidation figure includes the perp funding reset on Binance or just cascading longs? coinglass numbers looked lower when i checked around 4am UTC.
been trading this since 2017 and every single ‘war with Iran’ headline has been a local bottom within two weeks. 2020 Soleimani dip, 2024 embassy strike, same script. tape always forgets faster than people expect.