Bitcoin Bull Score Index Exits Bear Territory After $126,000 Peak

The Bitcoin Bull Score Index, the on-chain gauge most quants check before declaring a trend dead or alive, just left the red zone for the first time since Bitcoin slipped from its $126,000 all-time high. Half of its ten underlying indicators are now flashing bullish. The other half are not. That is the dictionary definition of neutral, and on a chart that has been buried in bear territory for months, neutral counts as news. The catch is that the last time this exact reading printed, it was a head fake.

What the Bitcoin Bull Score Index Actually Measures

The reading sits at 50 as of Thursday. That single number is the average state of ten on-chain inputs covering blockchain activity, holder profitability, and liquidity conditions. Think of it as a dashboard, not a prediction. Below 40 the market is structurally bearish. Above 60 it is in a sustainable uptrend. Anything in between is the awkward middle where conviction has not picked a side.

Reaching 50 matters because the index has been pinned in bear territory for the entire downtrend off the $126,000 peak. Five of the ten signals have now flipped green, including measures tied to network usage and wallet profitability. The other five are still bleeding. CryptoQuant’s own dashboard for the Bitcoin Bull Score Index shows the climb out of the red happened in lockstep with Bitcoin’s bounce from nearly $60,000 to roughly $78,000 over recent weeks.

First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50). In March 2022, the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week, and then the price resumed its decline.

Why the March 2022 Comparison Should Worry Bulls

Here is the part nobody on Crypto Twitter wants to repost. The exact same neutral reading hit in March 2022, after Bitcoin had rallied from around $35,000 to nearly $48,000. Traders called it. The bear market that started near $70,000 in November 2021 was over, they said. Then Bitcoin spent the rest of that year more than halving, finding a floor below $20,000.

That precedent is why Julio Moreno is choosing words carefully rather than ringing the bell. The neutral zone is not the same thing as the green zone. It is a phase the market passes through on the way up or on the way back down. In 2022 it lasted about a week before the index rolled over. The structural bear that followed wiped out the entire group of buyers who had treated the $48,000 rebound as confirmation.

Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Actually Over?

Probably not yet, even if the on-chain picture looks brighter. The Bull Score Index measuring real network conditions is a stronger signal than price action alone, because it captures things like coin movement and holder behavior that flow has to support over weeks, not minutes. The improvement is real. But a single-week neutral print is not a confirmation candle.

Bitcoin closed Wednesday near $79,388 and slipped to $77,794 by Thursday morning, up about 0.4% on the day. Ether, XRP and Solana all finished the previous session in the red. That mixed tape is exactly the kind of grinding range CryptoQuant’s team described in its broader writeup on the Bitcoin bear market and the scenarios that could play out from here. Range-bound, not trending. That distinction matters for anyone sizing positions.

• Below 40: structural bear market
• 40 to 60: neutral, transitional phase
• Above 60: strong, sustainable uptrend

Derivatives Are Not Buying the Recovery

On-chain analysts may see green shoots. The options desk does not. Front-end implied volatility around 40 is sitting below realized vol, skew still leans toward downside protection, and the term structure has barely steepened. Translation for non-traders: the people writing options on Bitcoin think the next big move is more likely down than up, and they are not paying up for upside calls.

The full breakdown comes from a QCP Capital market note published this week. The Singapore firm is one of the largest crypto derivatives shops in Asia, so its read on positioning carries weight. Its call: range-bound conditions, not breakout.

Front-end vols around 40 vol remain subdued relative to realized, skew still favours downside protection, and term structure is only modestly upward sloping. Positioning continues to point to range-bound conditions rather than a sustained breakout.

What Bitcoin Bulls Need to See Next

One number changes the read. If the Bull Score Index pushes above 60 and holds there for more than a week, the historical playbook flips from caution to confirmation. That is the level CryptoQuant flags as the threshold for a sustainable uptrend. Anything that stalls in the 40 to 60 band is information, not invitation.

Watch the same things on the price chart. Bitcoin needs to take out the Wednesday high of $79,388 with conviction, not a wick, and then defend any retest above the high $70,000s. A failure back below $74,000 would put the March 2022 analog squarely back on the table. Traders who lived through that round know the second leg down is the one that does the real damage, because by then most of the disciplined sellers are already out and the people left holding bought the bounce.

The Honest Take

Call it cautious optimism with the emphasis on cautious. The on-chain backdrop has improved enough that calling this a structural bear market with a straight face is no longer easy. But anybody waving the all-clear flag is ignoring the only historical precedent that matches the current setup, and that precedent ended in tears.

The index moving to neutral is meaningful. It just is not a green light. It is a yellow one. And in markets, yellow lights are where most of the worst trades get made, by people who treat them like green.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Every investment and trading decision involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions.